2018 M. NCAA Picks: Frosh Aim for Podium in Senior-Heavy 400 IM Field

2018 MEN’S NCAA SWIMMING & DIVING CHAMPIONSHIPS

  • Wednesday, March 21st-Saturday, March 24th
  • Jean K. Freeman Aquatic Center — Minneapolis, Minnesota
  • Defending champion: Texas (3x)
  • Psych Sheet
  • Championship Central

400 Individual Medley

With last year’s fourth-place finisher Gunnar Bentz (injury) failing to secure an invite in this event and not looking like he’ll pull off an upset in his bonus event, and 2017 champion Chase Kalisz graduated, the men’s 400 IM is set to see some fresh faces in the A final.

Hugo Gonzalez
(Courtesy: Wade Rackley/Auburn Athletics)

Auburn Freshman Hugo Gonzalez had an absolute breakout meet at the 2018 SEC Championships. Though he was overshadowed by Caeleb Dressel‘s 1:38.31 in the 200 IM, Gonzalez threw down a 1:40.67, tying him with Mark Szaranek as the 10th-fastest performer of all-time. He went on to win the 400 IM at that meet in 3:35.76, almost two seconds ahead of Szaranek, the #3 performance of all-time — making him the #2 performer behind Kalisz. However, the monster swim was a 3.52-second drop off of his previous best, so it’s unclear whether he’ll be able to match it, let alone improve, next week.

Florida senior Mark Szaranek, on the other hand, has over the last two years proven to drop time between SECs and NCAAs: in 2016 he dropped two seconds between the meets, and in 2017 he dropped a few tenths. He went 3:36.31 at NCAAs last year after going 3:36.54 at SECs — but Caeleb Dressel himself said that Szaranek had yet to drop down his yardage before going 3:37.50 at SECs this year.

Last year, Cal junior Andrew Seliskar went 3:39.53 at Pac-12s before going 3:36.18 at NCAAs. This year, he’s already been 3:38.65, pointing to good things to come at NCAAs. He, Szaranek, and Gonzalez are the top contenders for the podium, we can’t count out South Carolina freshman Brandonn Almeida, who went 3:39.08 at SECs. Due to issues with NCAA eligibility paperwork, Almeida only made his college debut this semester and has only swum two SCY 400 IMs in his life — both of them were in February. His LCM time of 4:13.00 that placed him 7th at the 2017 FINA World Championships converts to 3:36.59 in short course, so consider him a real podium threat.

Spots 4-8 are a little murkier. Georgia senior Jay Litherland has been 3:38.19 (December 2016), and then went 3:40.84 at 2017 SECs before going 3:38.39 at 2017 NCAAs. This year, he was 3:39.96 in December, then 3:42.50 at SECs. Stanford junior Abrahm Devine took fifth in this event last year (3:37.73), but got DQ’ed in finals at Pac-12s this year, hence his #30 seed. You can watch the Pac-12 race finish here, however, and see that his time would’ve been around 3:39.50 had he not been called.

Anton Ipsen (Courtesy: Tim Binning/TheSwimPictures.com)

Finally, seniors Jonathan Roberts and Anton Ipsen. Texas’ Roberts took sixth in 3:38.18 at 2017 NCAAs, but barely secured an invite this year with his 3:43.72 entry time, swum at the 2018 Big 12 Championships. Granted, we don’t know what his rest was like for that meet. NC State’s Ipsen is in the midst of perhaps the best season of his life — he dropped substantial time every event at the 2018 ACC Championships (including his 3:40.48 400 IM), we can be pretty sure he wasn’t well-rested (check out this tweet). Last year, he was 3:44.77 at ACCs, and lowered his time to 3:41.57 at NCAAs, so expect a drop at his final NCAAs.

Stanford’s Curtis Ogren was 3:40.25 at Pac-12s this year after going 3:41.6 at NCAAs in 2017. Again, we don’t know exactly how rested he was at Pac-12s, but Ogren is a strong candidate to drop under the 3:40 mark. Consider him the “dark horse” candidate.

If you look at the psych sheet, you’ll see sophomores Charlie Swanson and Ted Schubert are entered with 3:39.16 and 3:39.52, respectively. But both dropped considerable time (read: “insane” for Schubert) at their conference championships. Swanson dropped from 3:41.13, while Schubert dropped over 7.5 seconds, from 3:47.52, so it seems somewhat unlikely that they can match their conference times.

TOP 8 PICKS:

PLACE SWIMMER TEAM SEED BEST TIME
1 Mark Szaranek Florida 3:37.50 (#2) 3:36.54
2 Andrew Seliskar Cal 3:38.65 (#3) 3:36.18
3 Abrahm DeVine  Stanford  3:44.41 (#30) 3:37.73
4 Brandonn Almeida South Carolina 3:39.09 (#4) 3:39.09
5 Hugo Gonzalez Auburn 3:35.76 (#1) 3:35.76
6 Jay Litherland Georgia 3:39.96 (#7) 3:38.19
 7 Jonathan Roberts  Texas  3:43.72 (#27) 3:38.18
8 Anton Ipsen NC State  3:40.48 (#9)  3:40.48

 

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Sophie
6 years ago

Gonzales reminds me a bit of an Ella Eastin type IMer—he paces the race incredibly well (often leading start to finish) and doesn’t have any particular leg that he stands out on, but he also doesn’t lack in any leg. My picks are:

1. Gonzales
2. Seliskar
3. Szaranak
4. DeVine
5. Almeida
6. Roberts
7. Ogren
8. Litherland

Aquaman
6 years ago

Different situation and certainly there may have been different levels of rest, but Hugo flat hammered Seliskar in Georgia on the last 50-
My pesetas are on the Spaniard

Tomek
6 years ago

you sleeping on hugo

Daniel Carr
6 years ago

Gonzalez all the way for me, next big thing in the IM, he is getting tougher with every swim: Gonzalez, Szaranek, Seliskar top 3

Daniel Carr
Reply to  Daniel Carr
6 years ago

Guess people don’t like my picks lol, game on then for the pick em ;o)

Swimmer A
6 years ago

This is how you swim a 400 IM. Hugo Gonzalez looks like a pro.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VGaKPC_4HVA&list=PLmMt3QbnC-L3L7VUtw_Okb1AXNONiy4kC&index=3

BKP
Reply to  Swimmer A
6 years ago

Looks like he circle swam the backstroke, but other than that, top level swim. Breastroke leg was awesome, about 5 strokes per lap!

A non-e mouse
6 years ago

My money is on
1. Seliskar
2. Hugo
3. Szaranek

Hswimmer
Reply to  A non-e mouse
6 years ago

Not a bad bet.

marklewis
6 years ago

Hugo Gonzalez can swim all the strokes. He’s can even swim the breaststroke leg in 1:00. At the SEC meet, he took the lead in the backstroke, and then no one could close the gap in the breast and free.

GRUBBY
6 years ago

Swanson and Schubert will rise up. This isn’t their first rodeo with these guys. True talent and certainly accomplished champions. Both Club teammates at NOVA Aquatic with Texas’, Townley Haas. They know how to win and just might thrive as underdogs………

Hooville
Reply to  GRUBBY
6 years ago

And Swanson’s “big” drop came in a time trial… I think in a heat with legitimate competition, he will go faster than his 3:39!!

GRUBBY
Reply to  Hooville
6 years ago

Schubert’s drop came in a time trial. Swanson’s as he claimed the Big12 Conference Swimming Championship.

Hooville
Reply to  GRUBBY
6 years ago

oops… getting those fast NOVA boys mixed up…..

About Torrey Hart

Torrey Hart

Torrey is from Oakland, CA, and majored in media studies and American studies at Claremont McKenna College, where she swam distance freestyle for the Claremont-Mudd-Scripps team. Outside of SwimSwam, she has bylines at Sports Illustrated, Yahoo Sports, SB Nation, and The Student Life newspaper.

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