PROJECTIONS: Top 29 Lines All Qualify for Men’s NCAA’s; Texas’ Ganiel is Last Qualifier In

  34 Braden Keith | March 11th, 2014 | Big 12, College, Featured, News, SEC

Based on the math that has been triple-vindicated by Krista Kezbers, Tait Pinnow, and myself (thanks to both for their help), we can confidently say that the men’s NCAA selection, barring any changes between today and tomorrow’s expected release, will take every swimmer ranked 29th or higher (including a tie in the 400 IM for 29th), plus the five top swimmers on the 30th line.

As compared to the women’s line, this is not quite as clean. In the women’s meet, exactly all 39 top rows were taken. In the men’s line, the tie will have to be broken.

See the start lists here.

In the event of a tie, that tie is broken based on whichever swims are closest to their NCAA Championship (not overall NCAA) record. The formula is basically: NCAA CR/Time = Percentage, and whoever has the highest number wins.

Straddling the Cut Line

Below is a chart of those swimmers who are right on the cut line. The 7 who are not crossed off are the 7 who are relevant in the discussion as they’ve not already qualified higher.

Based on the math below, Kentucky’s Brandon Flynn, Texas’ Aaron Gustafson, Utah’s Kristian Kron, Virginia Tech’s Brandon Fiala, and Texas’ Imri Ganiel all got in. The Longhorn men had two on that 30th line, and they both snuck in. Kentucky wasn’t quite as lucky – Flynn got in, but senior Eric Bruck is the first alternate.

Bruck will still swim in Kentucky’s relays, making him one of the few who can say they’ll represent two different teams at the NCAA Championships. He was an NCAA qualifier at Clemson before that program was cut.

50 free Eric Bruck Kentucky 19.47 94.86%
100 free Sidni Hoxha Old Dominion 42.98  
200 free Hassaan Abdel-Khalik Michigan 1:34.71  
500 free Chris Swanson Penn 4:18.31  
1650 free Brandon Flynn Kentucky  15:03.42 95.65%
100 back Aaron Gustafson Texas  46.57 95.77%
200 back Kristian Kron Utah  1:42.41 95.28%
100 breast Imri Ganiel Texas  53.23 95.25%
200 breast Alex Gianino UNC 1:55.69  
100 fly Pedro Coutinho Louisville  - 94.85%
200 fly tied for 29th      
200 IM Brandon Fiala Virginia Tech 1:44.71 95.97%
400 IM Sam Rowan Arizona 3:45.64  

Full List of Expected NCAA Qualifiers is Below

Note that this is all unofficial until the NCAA’s official release on Wednesday.

McKee, Anton Alabama
Hornikel, BJ Alabama
Gkolomeev, Kristian Alabama
Oslin, Connor Alabama
Romanov, Pavel Alabama
Cordes, Kevin Arizona
Smith, Giles Arizona
Steel, Kevin Arizona
Tandy, Brad Arizona
Barber, Matt Arizona
Porter, Andrew Arizona
Friedemann, Mitchell Arizona
Rowan, Sam Arizona
Solis, Eric Arizona
Meyer, Michael Arizona
Coci, Alex Arizona State
Chierighini, Marcelo Auburn
Darmody, Kyle Auburn
Patching, Joe Auburn
Grothe, Zane Auburn
Duderstadt, Michael Auburn
Mendes, Arthur Auburn
Disney-May, James Auburn
Palmer, Hayden Brigham Young
Glenn, Thomas Brown
Fierro, Sonny Cal Poly
Murphy, Ryan California
Pebley, Jacob California
Messerschmidt, Tyler California
Williams, Trent California
Cox, Tony California
Stubblefield, Seth California
Katis, Chuck California
Prenot, Josh California
Bagshaw, Jeremy California
Hamilton, Will California
Cobleigh, Hunter California
Gutierrez, Long California
Hinshaw, Adam California
Fleming, Shayne California
Tarczynski, Marcin California
Gimondi, Fabio California
Quinn, Kevin Columbia University
Jakl, David Columbia University
Huxhold, Mitchell CSUB
Zupan, Nejc Dartmouth
Bunch, Dylan Denver
Knight, Hunter Duke
Cepulis, Rokas East Carolina
Frayler, Arthur Florida
Rousseau, Sebastien Florida
D’Arrigo, Mitch Florida
Solaeche-Gomez, Eduardo Florida
Cieslak, Marcin Florida
Signorin, Connor Florida
Main, Corey Florida
Elliott, Matt Florida
Omana, Carlos Florida
Werner, Pawel Florida
Wallace, Dan Florida
Curby, Matt Florida
Deborde, Bradley Florida
Blyzinskyj, Jack Florida
Sankovich, Pavel Florida State
Knight, Connor Florida State
Murray, Paul Florida State
Coombs, Jason Florida State
Rogers, Kevin Florida State
Fink, Nicolas Georgia
Kalisz, Chase Georgia
Gemmell, Andrew Georgia
Koski, Matias Georgia
Reynolds, Doug Georgia
Stewart, Tynan Georgia
Freeman, Will Georgia
Dale, Taylor Georgia
Clark, Pace Georgia
Markham, Jared Georgia
Powell, Garrett Georgia
Van Duijn, Nico Georgia Tech
Kosic, Andrew Georgia Tech
Ronda, Eric Harvard
Goicochea, Victor Hawaii
dePaula, Paulo Hawaii
Ress, Eric Indiana
Miller, Cody Indiana
Wells, James Indiana
Schmuhl, Steve Indiana
Rhoads, Dustin Iowa
Flynn, Brandon Kentucky
De Lucca, Joao Louisville
Chastain, Kameron Louisville
Tarasevich, Grigory Louisville
Dahlia, Thomas Louisville
Blondell, Caryle Louisville
Bray, Addison Louisville
Greene, Aaron louisville
Greeff, Frank LSU
Jaeger, Connor Michigan
Bosch, Dylan Michigan
Wynalda, Michael Michigan
Whitaker, Kyle Michigan
Nielsen, Anders Lie Michigan
Funk, Richard Michigan
Abdel Khalik, Hassaan Michigan
Glanda, Justin Michigan
Ortiz, Bruno Michigan
Wojciechowski, John Michigan
Brumm, Pete Michigan
Ryan, Sean Michigan
Kamiya, Ryutaro Michigan
Toomey, Derek Minnesota
Van Swol, Kyler Minnesota
Smith, CJ Minnesota
Maly, Jakub Minnesota
Tierney, Sam Missouri
Kozlowskij, Igor Missouri
Griffin, Carter Missouri
Mosley, Logan Missouri
Groome, Eegan Missouri
Le, Paul Missouri State
Kalnins, Uvis Missouri State
McCurdy, Christian NC State
Coetzer, Stephen NC State
Bilis, Simonas NC State
Miesfeld, Barrett NC State
Schiellerup, Andreas NC State
Boffa, Jonathan NC State
Bishop, Ian NC State
Williams, David NC State
Dahl, Soeren NC State
Willimovsky, Jordan Northwestern
Stephens, Zach Notre Dame
Williamson, John Notre Dame
Dyer, Frank Notre Dame
Phillips, Tim Ohio State
McDonald, Connor Ohio State
Trebillcock, Garrett Ohio State
McHugh, Matt Ohio State
Fleagle, Josh Ohio State
Zimmerman, Steven Ohio State
Gercsak, Tamas Ohio State
Disalle, Michael Ohio State
Hoxha, Sidni Old Dominion
Swanson, Chris Penn
Ryan, Shane Penn State
Savoy, Nate Penn State
Ankosko, Nick Penn State
Dias, Lyam Purdue
Blnaco, Guillermo Purdue
El Kamash, Marwan South Carolina
Malone, Reed Southern California
Colupaev, Dimitri Southern California
Carter, Dylan Southern California
Quintero, Cristian Southern California
Spinazzola, Luca Southern California
Wright, Cary Southern California
Davis, Maclin Southern California
Singley, Ted Southern California
Malone, Andrew Southern California
Nolan, David Stanford
Cosgarea, Drew Stanford
Williamson, Max Stanford
Umbach, Gray Stanford
Thomas, Danny Stanford
Black, Connor Stanford
Shaw, Mason Stanford
Kremer, Tom Stanford
Lehane, Sean Tennessee
Percy, Luke Tennessee
Rairden, Sam Tennessee
Prono, Renato Tennessee
Slater, Tristan Tennessee
Conger, Jack Texas
Darmody, Kip Texas
Cooper, Tripp Texas
Lewis, Sam (Tex) Texas
Weir, Caleb Texas
Licon, Will Texas
Murphy, Pat Texas
Ritter, Jake Texas
Youngquist, Clay Texas
Ellis, Matthew Texas
Glass, Will Texas
Murphy, Keith Texas
Munoz, Nick Texas
Murray, John Texas
Ganiel, Imri Texas
Gustafson, Aaron Texas
Troskot, Kyle Texas A&M
Frank, Simon Texas A&M
Bolleter, Cory Texas A&M
Schweizter, Paul-Mark Texas A&M
Lindau, Henrik Texas A&M
Robinson, Cooper TX Christian
Hoffer, Luke U.S. Navy
Duvall, Thomas U.S. Navy
Murphy, Sean U.S. Navy
Allen, Wade UCSB
Hussein, Mohamed UMBC
Colley, Ben UNC
Gianino, Alex UNC
Lewis, Sam (UNC) UNC
Myers, Patrick UNC
Soedel, Nick Univ of Utah
Kiraly, Bence Univ of Utah
Kron, Kristian Univ of Utah
Virva, Dillon UNLV
Paco Pedroni, Tom UNLV
Szele, David UNLV
Machado, Henrique UNLV
Kaeser, Yannick Virginia
Papendick, Luke Virginia
Dudzinwski, Kyle Virginia
Phillips, Bradley Virginia
Ingraham, David Virginia Tech
Murfee, Jack Virginia
Daniec, Jon Virginia
Camp, Parker Virginia
Hart, Nathan Virginia
Latimer, Morgan Virginia Tech
Higgins, Collin Virginia Tech
Switkowski, Jan Virginia Tech
Owen, Robert Virginia Tech
Cefalo, Harrison Virginia Tech
Fiala, Brandon Virginia Tech
Bohman, Bryce West Virginia
Squires, Tim West Virginia
Schwingenschlogl, Fabian Western KY
Teduits, Drew Wisconsin
Schafer, Nick Wisconsin
Caldwell, Nicholas Wisconsin
Kalms, Adam Wyoming
Nelson, Ryan Wyoming
Hogan, Brian Yale

Comments

  1. DRUKSTOP says:
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    I don’t get the last line, “Bruck will still swim in Kentucky’s relays, making him one of the few who can say they’ll represent two different teams at the NCAA Championships.” What is meant ment by this?

    • Braden Keith Braden Keith says:
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      Drukstop – sorry, should’ve elaborated. Bruck swam at NCAA’s previously with Clemson before their program was cut.

  2. PAC12BACKER says:
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    So it appears the sprint freestylers are at a disadvantage based on this percentage formula, because their times are compared to either Vlad’s or Cielo’s uber fast record times, right? Cielo’s 50 was full body, now illegal suit era.

    We’ll see if SwimSwam nailed these predictions. This is the only site out there that has this pre-selection information and insight. Really great!

    • ThatSwimKid says:
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      Your comment suggests that these are fast records, and other NCAA records are slow? This is the fairest way to do so. Otherwise, I do not think they would use this method.

    • Derek Mead says:
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      Yeah it is tough to compare to those sprinters, but Vlad was just a year ago in a jammer (still insanely fast). While Cielo was in a full body, it was a fastskin pro, so it wasn’t a polyurathane. Those are just tough events to compete in because many of the top sprinters in the world swam NCAAs, which isn’t the case for many other events.

  3. Jim Freemont says:
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    If I’m UK I scratch the miler in order to get Bruck in the meet.

    • Peterdavis says:
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      Tough, tough call. Don’t envy Jorgensen this week.

      • Jim Freemont says:
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        Maybe a tough conversation, but not a tough call. It is more likely that Bruck can move up into scoring position than Flynn.

        • Peterdavis says:
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          Agreed.

        • M_FAN says:
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          You give it to the guy who earned it… Flynn deserves it.

          • Peterdavis says:
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            I’d have to guess the miler goes and the sprinter swims on relays. Points wise, I probably side with Jim. As a coach myself, I side with M_Fan. Again, I don’t envy Lars’ decision.

          • Sean says:
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            When you are in contention to winning a meet like this you don’t care about yourself, you care about the team.

          • ole 99 says:
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            Sean:

            For all intents and purposes, UK is not in contention to win this meet so I’m not sure I follow.

          • osd says:
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            At line 30, it’s not like Kentucky is choosing between projected scorers.
            In prior years, at line 14 you might have had a choice between the guy who earned it and someone else who score in 3 events.
            The guy who earned it deserves to go.

          • Paul McCall says:
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            OSD: I disagree Bruck has a very legitimate shot of scoring. He’s scored in the past, and probably wasn’t fully rested to qualify (he’s been steadily improving over the years, and didn’t go a PR). He probably just assumed that 19.46 was safe and didn’t keep tapering to try and go faster… I certainly thought it was safe at the time.

          • Peterdavis says:
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            Yep, OSD, you aren’t wrong. I think the unspoken assumption throughout the above comments is that the sprinter is more likely to jump up and score in an event as variable and tightly packed as the 50. He is 19.4. Could 19.2-.3 likely score points? Gawd yes. 19.4 might do damage. Is that a more likely time/drop than say a miler needing a :5-:10+(I don’t know what he’d realistically need and don’t want to bother looking it up while stuffing my face at lunch right now) second drop? I’d say so. But only Lars and the athletes really know. Cheers

  4. SeahawkSwammer says:
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    Why is Hassaan (also 3 A’s not 4 as you have above) Abdel-Khalik listed in the 200 free position? Won’t he qualify automatically in the 500? He is 10th on the entry report in the 500, so he shouldn’t be counted in the 200 free? Or do I have the entry process wrong…

    • Braden Keith Braden Keith says:
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      Hence the black line drawn through his name, and the no percentage given for his “tie breaker”.

  5. kingfish says:
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    Bradley Deborde and Jack Blyzinskyj are Florida Gators not Florida State

  6. Abc says:
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    Isn’t Meyer from Arizona and not ASU?

  7. Wahooswimfan says:
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    This list has been cutoff – stops at the “U”s – leaves of teams like Virginia, Va Tech, UNC, Wisconsin, and others at that end of the alphabet.

  8. Wahooswimfan says:
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    Did your projections take into account the tie for the 29th spot in the 200 fly? If not, that’s one less line 30 qualifier.

  9. Wahooswimfan says:
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    correction – David Ingraham is UVA, not Va Tech

    • Braden Keith Braden Keith says:
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      Thanks Wahooswimfan – I think when Krista and I were entering these, we must’ve been caught by Excel’s auto-fill feature.

  10. Sean S says:
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    Pretty interesting to see that USC had two of the top recruits in the country who couldn’t make NCAAs their freshman year in Condorelli and Stumph. Hopefully this is just a part of adjusting to college and that they are there next year. Danny Tucker not making the meet is a little bit of a shock too after how fast he was at the US Open last summer.

    • korn says:
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      Speaking of USC, I am surprised Spinazzola, Luca is entered. He hasn’t swum a dual meet this semester I don’t think and didn’t go to Pac 12’s. Hope he actually is going and didn’t just take up a slot that another swimmer would love the opportunity to go to NCAA’s.

      • Braden Keith Braden Keith says:
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        korn – Spinazzola did race against Wisconsin in January, and has been doing some time trials and stuff. The information we’ve received is that his absence was not related to academics or injury.

        He also swam in the 200 medley relay against Utah.

    • PAC12BACKER says:
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      Danny Tucker is coming off a recent injury. He may be back in shape for long course.

    • Curious... says:
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      And where is Bobrosky this year…

      • Pac12parent says:
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        Chad has had some health issues and hasn’t been swimming up to his times this year. Bummer for him and team.

  11. samuel huntington says:
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    Condorelli has improved in his sprints. The sprint events are just hard for freshmen to break into. He will be a key part of the Trojan relays though. And Stumph is a mystery, he didn’t get faster.

    • PositiveEnergy says:
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      Santo will be going to NC’s to swim several relays. Of the 235 on roster only 37 (15%)were freshman and only 3 frosh made the 50 Free cut. A lot of people got left off NC roster for individual swims at many schools this year. The 50 Free cut was particularly hard to make this year.

    • Paul McCall says:
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      Condorelli didn’t improve by much… but, he’s a freshman, that happens. If he doesn’t drop next year, then worry.

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