PROJECTIONS: Top 29 Lines All Qualify for Men’s NCAA’s; Texas’ Ganiel is Last Qualifier In

  34 Braden Keith | March 11th, 2014 | Big 12, College, Featured, News, SEC

pinit fg en rect gray 28 PROJECTIONS: Top 29 Lines All Qualify for Mens NCAAs; Texas Ganiel is Last Qualifier In

Based on the math that has been triple-vindicated by Krista Kezbers, Tait Pinnow, and myself (thanks to both for their help), we can confidently say that the men’s NCAA selection, barring any changes between today and tomorrow’s expected release, will take every swimmer ranked 29th or higher (including a tie in the 400 IM for 29th), plus the five top swimmers on the 30th line.

As compared to the women’s line, this is not quite as clean. In the women’s meet, exactly all 39 top rows were taken. In the men’s line, the tie will have to be broken.

See the start lists here.

In the event of a tie, that tie is broken based on whichever swims are closest to their NCAA Championship (not overall NCAA) record. The formula is basically: NCAA CR/Time = Percentage, and whoever has the highest number wins.

Straddling the Cut Line

Below is a chart of those swimmers who are right on the cut line. The 7 who are not crossed off are the 7 who are relevant in the discussion as they’ve not already qualified higher.

Based on the math below, Kentucky’s Brandon Flynn, Texas’ Aaron Gustafson, Utah’s Kristian Kron, Virginia Tech’s Brandon Fiala, and Texas’ Imri Ganiel all got in. The Longhorn men had two on that 30th line, and they both snuck in. Kentucky wasn’t quite as lucky – Flynn got in, but senior Eric Bruck is the first alternate.

Bruck will still swim in Kentucky’s relays, making him one of the few who can say they’ll represent two different teams at the NCAA Championships. He was an NCAA qualifier at Clemson before that program was cut.

50 freeEric BruckKentucky19.4794.86%
100 freeSidni HoxhaOld Dominion42.98 
200 freeHassaan Abdel-KhalikMichigan1:34.71 
500 freeChris SwansonPenn4:18.31 
1650 freeBrandon FlynnKentucky 15:03.4295.65%
100 backAaron GustafsonTexas 46.5795.77%
200 backKristian KronUtah 1:42.4195.28%
100 breastImri GanielTexas 53.2395.25%
200 breastAlex GianinoUNC1:55.69 
100 flyPedro CoutinhoLouisville -94.85%
200 flytied for 29th   
200 IMBrandon FialaVirginia Tech1:44.7195.97%
400 IMSam RowanArizona3:45.64 

Full List of Expected NCAA Qualifiers is Below

Note that this is all unofficial until the NCAA’s official release on Wednesday.

McKee, AntonAlabama
Hornikel, BJAlabama
Gkolomeev, KristianAlabama
Oslin, ConnorAlabama
Romanov, PavelAlabama
Cordes, KevinArizona
Smith, GilesArizona
Steel, KevinArizona
Tandy, BradArizona
Barber, MattArizona
Porter, AndrewArizona
Friedemann, MitchellArizona
Rowan, SamArizona
Solis, EricArizona
Meyer, MichaelArizona
Coci, AlexArizona State
Chierighini, MarceloAuburn
Darmody, KyleAuburn
Patching, JoeAuburn
Grothe, ZaneAuburn
Duderstadt, MichaelAuburn
Mendes, ArthurAuburn
Disney-May, JamesAuburn
Palmer, HaydenBrigham Young
Glenn, ThomasBrown
Fierro, SonnyCal Poly
Murphy, RyanCalifornia
Pebley, JacobCalifornia
Messerschmidt, TylerCalifornia
Williams, TrentCalifornia
Cox, TonyCalifornia
Stubblefield, SethCalifornia
Katis, ChuckCalifornia
Prenot, JoshCalifornia
Bagshaw, JeremyCalifornia
Hamilton, WillCalifornia
Cobleigh, HunterCalifornia
Gutierrez, LongCalifornia
Hinshaw, AdamCalifornia
Fleming, ShayneCalifornia
Tarczynski, MarcinCalifornia
Gimondi, FabioCalifornia
Quinn, KevinColumbia University
Jakl, DavidColumbia University
Huxhold, MitchellCSUB
Zupan, NejcDartmouth
Bunch, DylanDenver
Knight, HunterDuke
Cepulis, RokasEast Carolina
Frayler, ArthurFlorida
Rousseau, SebastienFlorida
D’Arrigo, MitchFlorida
Solaeche-Gomez, EduardoFlorida
Cieslak, MarcinFlorida
Signorin, ConnorFlorida
Main, CoreyFlorida
Elliott, MattFlorida
Omana, CarlosFlorida
Werner, PawelFlorida
Wallace, DanFlorida
Curby, MattFlorida
Deborde, BradleyFlorida
Blyzinskyj, JackFlorida
Sankovich, PavelFlorida State
Knight, ConnorFlorida State
Murray, PaulFlorida State
Coombs, JasonFlorida State
Rogers, KevinFlorida State
Fink, NicolasGeorgia
Kalisz, ChaseGeorgia
Gemmell, AndrewGeorgia
Koski, MatiasGeorgia
Reynolds, DougGeorgia
Stewart, TynanGeorgia
Freeman, WillGeorgia
Dale, TaylorGeorgia
Clark, PaceGeorgia
Markham, JaredGeorgia
Powell, GarrettGeorgia
Van Duijn, NicoGeorgia Tech
Kosic, AndrewGeorgia Tech
Ronda, EricHarvard
Goicochea, VictorHawaii
dePaula, PauloHawaii
Ress, EricIndiana
Miller, CodyIndiana
Wells, JamesIndiana
Schmuhl, SteveIndiana
Rhoads, DustinIowa
Flynn, BrandonKentucky
De Lucca, JoaoLouisville
Chastain, KameronLouisville
Tarasevich, GrigoryLouisville
Dahlia, ThomasLouisville
Blondell, CaryleLouisville
Bray, AddisonLouisville
Greene, Aaronlouisville
Greeff, FrankLSU
Jaeger, ConnorMichigan
Bosch, DylanMichigan
Wynalda, MichaelMichigan
Whitaker, KyleMichigan
Nielsen, Anders LieMichigan
Funk, RichardMichigan
Abdel Khalik, HassaanMichigan
Glanda, JustinMichigan
Ortiz, BrunoMichigan
Wojciechowski, JohnMichigan
Brumm, PeteMichigan
Ryan, SeanMichigan
Kamiya, RyutaroMichigan
Toomey, DerekMinnesota
Van Swol, KylerMinnesota
Smith, CJMinnesota
Maly, JakubMinnesota
Tierney, SamMissouri
Kozlowskij, IgorMissouri
Griffin, CarterMissouri
Mosley, LoganMissouri
Groome, EeganMissouri
Le, PaulMissouri State
Kalnins, UvisMissouri State
McCurdy, ChristianNC State
Coetzer, StephenNC State
Bilis, SimonasNC State
Miesfeld, BarrettNC State
Schiellerup, AndreasNC State
Boffa, JonathanNC State
Bishop, IanNC State
Williams, DavidNC State
Dahl, SoerenNC State
Willimovsky, JordanNorthwestern
Stephens, ZachNotre Dame
Williamson, JohnNotre Dame
Dyer, FrankNotre Dame
Phillips, TimOhio State
McDonald, ConnorOhio State
Trebillcock, GarrettOhio State
McHugh, MattOhio State
Fleagle, JoshOhio State
Zimmerman, StevenOhio State
Gercsak, TamasOhio State
Disalle, MichaelOhio State
Hoxha, SidniOld Dominion
Swanson, ChrisPenn
Ryan, ShanePenn State
Savoy, NatePenn State
Ankosko, NickPenn State
Dias, LyamPurdue
Blnaco, GuillermoPurdue
El Kamash, MarwanSouth Carolina
Malone, ReedSouthern California
Colupaev, DimitriSouthern California
Carter, DylanSouthern California
Quintero, CristianSouthern California
Spinazzola, LucaSouthern California
Wright, CarySouthern California
Davis, MaclinSouthern California
Singley, TedSouthern California
Malone, AndrewSouthern California
Nolan, DavidStanford
Cosgarea, DrewStanford
Williamson, MaxStanford
Umbach, GrayStanford
Thomas, DannyStanford
Black, ConnorStanford
Shaw, MasonStanford
Kremer, TomStanford
Lehane, SeanTennessee
Percy, LukeTennessee
Rairden, SamTennessee
Prono, RenatoTennessee
Slater, TristanTennessee
Conger, JackTexas
Darmody, KipTexas
Cooper, TrippTexas
Lewis, Sam (Tex)Texas
Weir, CalebTexas
Licon, WillTexas
Murphy, PatTexas
Ritter, JakeTexas
Youngquist, ClayTexas
Ellis, MatthewTexas
Glass, WillTexas
Murphy, KeithTexas
Munoz, NickTexas
Murray, JohnTexas
Ganiel, ImriTexas
Gustafson, AaronTexas
Troskot, KyleTexas A&M
Frank, SimonTexas A&M
Bolleter, CoryTexas A&M
Schweizter, Paul-MarkTexas A&M
Lindau, HenrikTexas A&M
Robinson, CooperTX Christian
Hoffer, LukeU.S. Navy
Duvall, ThomasU.S. Navy
Murphy, SeanU.S. Navy
Allen, WadeUCSB
Hussein, MohamedUMBC
Colley, BenUNC
Gianino, AlexUNC
Lewis, Sam (UNC)UNC
Myers, PatrickUNC
Soedel, NickUniv of Utah
Kiraly, BenceUniv of Utah
Kron, KristianUniv of Utah
Virva, DillonUNLV
Paco Pedroni, TomUNLV
Szele, DavidUNLV
Machado, HenriqueUNLV
Kaeser, YannickVirginia
Papendick, LukeVirginia
Dudzinwski, KyleVirginia
Phillips, BradleyVirginia
Ingraham, DavidVirginia Tech
Murfee, JackVirginia
Daniec, JonVirginia
Camp, ParkerVirginia
Hart, NathanVirginia
Latimer, MorganVirginia Tech
Higgins, CollinVirginia Tech
Switkowski, JanVirginia Tech
Owen, RobertVirginia Tech
Cefalo, HarrisonVirginia Tech
Fiala, BrandonVirginia Tech
Bohman, BryceWest Virginia
Squires, TimWest Virginia
Schwingenschlogl, FabianWestern KY
Teduits, DrewWisconsin
Schafer, NickWisconsin
Caldwell, NicholasWisconsin
Kalms, AdamWyoming
Nelson, RyanWyoming
Hogan, BrianYale

Comments

  1. DRUKSTOP says:
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    I don’t get the last line, “Bruck will still swim in Kentucky’s relays, making him one of the few who can say they’ll represent two different teams at the NCAA Championships.” What is meant ment by this?

    • Braden KeithBraden Keith says:
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      Drukstop – sorry, should’ve elaborated. Bruck swam at NCAA’s previously with Clemson before their program was cut.

  2. PAC12BACKER says:
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    So it appears the sprint freestylers are at a disadvantage based on this percentage formula, because their times are compared to either Vlad’s or Cielo’s uber fast record times, right? Cielo’s 50 was full body, now illegal suit era.

    We’ll see if SwimSwam nailed these predictions. This is the only site out there that has this pre-selection information and insight. Really great!

    • ThatSwimKid says:
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      Your comment suggests that these are fast records, and other NCAA records are slow? This is the fairest way to do so. Otherwise, I do not think they would use this method.

    • Derek Mead says:
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      Yeah it is tough to compare to those sprinters, but Vlad was just a year ago in a jammer (still insanely fast). While Cielo was in a full body, it was a fastskin pro, so it wasn’t a polyurathane. Those are just tough events to compete in because many of the top sprinters in the world swam NCAAs, which isn’t the case for many other events.

  3. Jim Freemont says:
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    If I’m UK I scratch the miler in order to get Bruck in the meet.

    • Peterdavis says:
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      Tough, tough call. Don’t envy Jorgensen this week.

      • Jim Freemont says:
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        Maybe a tough conversation, but not a tough call. It is more likely that Bruck can move up into scoring position than Flynn.

        • Peterdavis says:
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          Agreed.

        • M_FAN says:
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          You give it to the guy who earned it… Flynn deserves it.

          • Peterdavis says:
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            I’d have to guess the miler goes and the sprinter swims on relays. Points wise, I probably side with Jim. As a coach myself, I side with M_Fan. Again, I don’t envy Lars’ decision.

          • Sean says:
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            When you are in contention to winning a meet like this you don’t care about yourself, you care about the team.

          • ole 99 says:
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            Sean:

            For all intents and purposes, UK is not in contention to win this meet so I’m not sure I follow.

          • osd says:
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            At line 30, it’s not like Kentucky is choosing between projected scorers.
            In prior years, at line 14 you might have had a choice between the guy who earned it and someone else who score in 3 events.
            The guy who earned it deserves to go.

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            OSD: I disagree Bruck has a very legitimate shot of scoring. He’s scored in the past, and probably wasn’t fully rested to qualify (he’s been steadily improving over the years, and didn’t go a PR). He probably just assumed that 19.46 was safe and didn’t keep tapering to try and go faster… I certainly thought it was safe at the time.

          • Peterdavis says:
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            Yep, OSD, you aren’t wrong. I think the unspoken assumption throughout the above comments is that the sprinter is more likely to jump up and score in an event as variable and tightly packed as the 50. He is 19.4. Could 19.2-.3 likely score points? Gawd yes. 19.4 might do damage. Is that a more likely time/drop than say a miler needing a :5-:10+(I don’t know what he’d realistically need and don’t want to bother looking it up while stuffing my face at lunch right now) second drop? I’d say so. But only Lars and the athletes really know. Cheers

  4. SeahawkSwammer says:
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    Why is Hassaan (also 3 A’s not 4 as you have above) Abdel-Khalik listed in the 200 free position? Won’t he qualify automatically in the 500? He is 10th on the entry report in the 500, so he shouldn’t be counted in the 200 free? Or do I have the entry process wrong…

  5. kingfish says:
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    Bradley Deborde and Jack Blyzinskyj are Florida Gators not Florida State

  6. Abc says:
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    Isn’t Meyer from Arizona and not ASU?

  7. Wahooswimfan says:
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    This list has been cutoff – stops at the “U”s – leaves of teams like Virginia, Va Tech, UNC, Wisconsin, and others at that end of the alphabet.

  8. Wahooswimfan says:
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    Did your projections take into account the tie for the 29th spot in the 200 fly? If not, that’s one less line 30 qualifier.

  9. Wahooswimfan says:
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    correction – David Ingraham is UVA, not Va Tech

    • Braden KeithBraden Keith says:
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      Thanks Wahooswimfan – I think when Krista and I were entering these, we must’ve been caught by Excel’s auto-fill feature.

  10. Sean S says:
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    Pretty interesting to see that USC had two of the top recruits in the country who couldn’t make NCAAs their freshman year in Condorelli and Stumph. Hopefully this is just a part of adjusting to college and that they are there next year. Danny Tucker not making the meet is a little bit of a shock too after how fast he was at the US Open last summer.

    • korn says:
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      Speaking of USC, I am surprised Spinazzola, Luca is entered. He hasn’t swum a dual meet this semester I don’t think and didn’t go to Pac 12’s. Hope he actually is going and didn’t just take up a slot that another swimmer would love the opportunity to go to NCAA’s.

      • Braden KeithBraden Keith says:
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        korn – Spinazzola did race against Wisconsin in January, and has been doing some time trials and stuff. The information we’ve received is that his absence was not related to academics or injury.

        He also swam in the 200 medley relay against Utah.

    • PAC12BACKER says:
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      Danny Tucker is coming off a recent injury. He may be back in shape for long course.

    • Curious... says:
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      And where is Bobrosky this year…

      • Pac12parent says:
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        Chad has had some health issues and hasn’t been swimming up to his times this year. Bummer for him and team.

  11. samuel huntington says:
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    Condorelli has improved in his sprints. The sprint events are just hard for freshmen to break into. He will be a key part of the Trojan relays though. And Stumph is a mystery, he didn’t get faster.

    • PositiveEnergy says:
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      Santo will be going to NC’s to swim several relays. Of the 235 on roster only 37 (15%)were freshman and only 3 frosh made the 50 Free cut. A lot of people got left off NC roster for individual swims at many schools this year. The 50 Free cut was particularly hard to make this year.

    • 0
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      Condorelli didn’t improve by much… but, he’s a freshman, that happens. If he doesn’t drop next year, then worry.

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