2016 W. NCAA Picks: Can King Crown Herself 100 Breast Queen?

2016 WOMEN’S NCAA SWIMMING & DIVING CHAMPIONSHIPS

100 BREASTSTROKE

  • NCAA record: 57.23 — Breeja Larson (Texas A&M) —3/21/2014
  • American record: 57.23 — Breeja Larson (Texas A&M) —3/21/2014
  • U.S. Open record: 57.23 — Breeja Larson (Texas A&M) —3/21/2014
  • 2015 NCAA Champion: Sarah Haase (Stanford) 58.32

Stupid headlines aside, Indiana freshman Lilly King has been on a tear since last summer. A high profile breaststroker in her high school career, King really made a name for herself in 2015, winning a silver medal at the World University games in the 100m breast before her first collegiate competition for Indiana. Her time of 1:06.93 was her first swim under 1:07. She proved that that kind of speed wasn’t a one-time thing for her, blasting a lifetime best of 1:06.69 to finish 2nd overall at the 2015 U.S. Nationals.

This season, King dropped another long course best at Winter Nationals (1:06.43), and then posted the 4th-fastest 100y breast ever at the Big Ten Championships, going 57.35 to easily take the Big Ten crown. King has been tested with multiple taper schedules before; her summer of 2015 was pretty hectic. She is the clear favorite for the 100 breast national title at NCAAs. She’s only .12 off of the big records held by Breeja Larson, too.

Lots of experienced upperclassmen follow King, though none have ever broken 58 seconds. Leading the pack is Stanford’s Sarah Haase, 2015 champion in this event. She’s performed well this year, so we’ll give her the nod for 2nd over other upperclassmen like juniors Andrea Cottrell (Louisville) and Laura Simon (Virginia).

King won’t be the only high-profile freshman in this event– her teammate, Miranda Tucker, comes in as the #5 seed after hitting a lifetime best of 58.58 at Big Tens to finish up 2nd behind King. IU’s freshman duo is arguably the best breaststroke pair in the country, but coming in a very close second is the twosome from Mizzou. Junior Katharine Ross and senior Abby Duncan come in as #4 and #7 seeds, and have been steadily improving since they got to Missouri.

The Big Ten is incredibly deep in this event, and #8 seed Emily Fogle (Purdue) rounds out the sub-59’ers club for this year. Another Big Ten competitor, Iowa’s Emma Sougstad, sits at 9th.

TOP 8 PREDICTIONS

SWIMMER SCHOOL SEED BEST TIME
Lilly King Indiana 1st – 57.35 57.35
Sarah Haase Stanford 2nd – 58.02 58.02
Andrea Cottrell Louisville 3rd – 58.26 58.26
Laura Simon Virginia 6th – 58.73 58.53
Katharine Ross Mizzou 4th – 58.38 58.38
Emily Fogle Purdue 8th– 58.88 58.88
Miranda Tucker Indiana 5th — 58.58 58.58
Abby Duncan Mizzou 7th — 58.83 58.83

Dark Horse: USC’s Riley Scott isn’t the riskiest dark horse, as she’s seeded just two spots out of finals at #10, but the freshman could have a big swim ready to go at NCAAs. A highly-touted breaststroke recruit in high school, Scott had never broken a minute until this season, when she did so twice at the Texas Invite and twice again at the Pac-12 Champs. Her 59.31 from Pac-12s is her lifetime best, after she had never been under 1:00.5 prior to becoming a Trojan. This is going to be a hard A final to make with the top 8 seeds all under 59 seconds, but Scott has the momentum to break through.

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About Karl Ortegon

Karl Ortegon

Karl Ortegon studied sociology at Wesleyan University in Middletown, CT, graduating in May of 2018. He began swimming on a club team in first grade and swam four years for Wesleyan.

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