The women’s 200 freestyle is absolutely loaded with talent. Okay, every event at the Olympic Trials is loaded with talent, but not in the same way that the women’s 200 free is. In 2012 Allison Schmitt won the race in Omaha with a time of 1:54.40, and Alyssa Anderson made the team by finishing 6th and exactly 4 seconds behind Schmitt with a 1:58.40. The entire field is much faster and deeper this time around, and it may take a 1:58.40 or faster just to make the semifinals this year.
Katie Ledecky has been unstoppable ever since she won her first Olympic gold in London four years ago at the age of 15 in the 800. The once-and-future distance queen has proven her ability to swim the shorter races as well, beating out Italian world-record-holder Federica Pellegrini and teammate Missy Franklin last summer in Kazan to win gold in the 200. Her endurance is complemented with sharpened front-end speed, as she has demonstrated with a series of 54-second 100 frees (and one 53) throughout 2015 and 2016.
Ledecky (left) and Franklin (right) in Kazan taking 1st and 3rd, respectively. Courtesy Tim Binning/The Swim Pictures
Missy Franklin has been highly competitive in the 200 free ever since she placed 4th in it at 2012 Olympics in London. In 2013 Franklin was World Champion in the event, and in 2015 she won the bronze behind teammate Ledecky and Italian world-record-holder Pellegrini. Already having clocked a 1:57.67 at the Arena PSS in Orlando this March, Franklin looks not only for a relay spot, but for a chance to race the 200 free individually in Rio.
2012 Olympic Champion Allison Schmitt has been relatively removed from the spotlight since London, but her times speak for themselves. Last summer, instead of swimming at the World Championships in Kazan, Schmitt swam at the Pan American Games, winning the race by over one second and setting a new competition record (1:56.23). In April, Schmitt swam a brisk 1:56.52 at the Arena PSS in Mesa. Training buddy of Michael Phelps and fellow disciple of Bob Bowman, Schmitt has the training and the tools to wow in Omaha.
Simone Manuel by Mike Lewis
Sprint star Simone Manuel has been steadily improving in the 200 free, and she even got a best time in Atlanta last month (1:57.90), swimming beside winner Ledecky. Manuel, who swims for the Stanford Cardinal, has swum at the 2013 and 2015 FINA World Championships, as well as at the 2014 Pan Pacs, picking up medals of every color between the three competitions, including a gold in 2013 as a member of the 400 free relay.
Junior butterfly star Katie McLaughlin has shown promise on her road to recovery after a neck injury that she endured during Cal Berkley’s training trip to Hawaii between semesters of the past NCAA season. McLaughlin, after taking months off from competition to focus on neck rehab and a lighter training regimen, recently resumed competition. At the Fran Crippen Meet of Champions held in late April, McLaughlin posted a 1:59.74 in her 200 free, though she swam a 1:57.55 last summer.
IM stars Maya Dirado and Ella Eastin both have great 200 freestyle times, but both are better at the 200 IM, and the finals of the 200 IM and 200 free are in the same session, with the 200 free coming first. Dirado went a 1:57.70 earlier this month at the Arena PSS and Eastin split a 1:42.18 as the second leg on Stanford’s 800 free relay at the NCAA Championships in March of this year.
If either or both make the 200 free final, though, it’d be a tough call to scratch out, with all but 2 of the A finalists making the Olympic team. We’ll predict both swimmers taking on the double at this point.
Leah Smith and Lia Neal both had stellar NCAA seasons. At the NCAA National Championships held in March, Smith was victorious in both the 500 and the 1650, missing her own NCAA record in the 500 by about one second, and off her record in the mile by about 7 seconds. Smith also took 6th in the 200 free at NCAA’s. Smith swam a 1:56.64 at the Arena PSS in Indianapolis earlier this month, and is looking like a threat for a relay spot. Neal took 3rd in the 200 free at NCAA’s, as well as 2nd in the 100 and 6th in the 50. Though she has a slower LCM 200 than most of the others in this predicted top-12, her yards time indicates big potential in the Olympic pool.
Shannon Vreeland, 2012 Olympic Gold Medalist in the 800 free relay and 2013 triple-world-champion as a member of the 400 free, 800 free, and 400 medley relays, has posted strong times so far this season, including a 1:58.88 at the Atlanta Classic held in June. Melanie Margalis, a contender for the 100 and 200 breaststroke finals, also posted a great time of 1:57.33 at the Arena PSS earlier this month. Hali Flickinger, NCAA finalist in the 200 (6th) and 500 (3rd), led off the University of Georgia’s championship 800 free relay with a time of 1:42.80, and her best LCM time of 1:58.18 makes her competitive for a relay spot.
One rising young swimmer who hasn’t made much of an appearance in our predictions yet is Katie Drabot. The Junior Pan Pacs gold medalist in 2014, Drabot has consistently cut time in this event since breaking two minutes for the first time in 2013. Drabot was third at U.S. Nationals last summer in a lifetime-best 1:58.58.
| Place at OT | Name | Best Time Since London | Predicted Time in Omaha | Training Base |
| 1 | Katie Ledecky | 1:54.43 | 1:53.7 | Nation’s Capitol Swim Club |
| 2 | Missy Franklin | 1:54.81 | 1:54.5 | Colorado Stars |
| 3 | Allison Schmitt | 1:56.23 | 1:55.2 | NBAC at ASU |
| 4 | Leah Smith | 1:56.64 | 1:55.6 | University of Virginia |
| 5 | Melanie Margalis | 1:57.33 | 1:56.8 | St. Petersburg Aquatic Club |
| 6 | Simone Manuel | 1:57.90 | 1:56.9 | Stanford |
| 7 | Lia Neal | 1:58.87 | 1:57.2 | Stanford |
| 8 | Hali Flickinger | 1:58.18 | 1:57.4 | University of Georgia |
| 9 | Shannon Vreeland | 1:56.76 | 1:57.5 | Athens Bulldogs Swim Club |
| 10 | Maya Dirado | 1:57.70 | 1:57.5 | Stanford |
| 11 | Katie McLaughlin | 1:57.55 | 1:57.6 | Cal Berkley |
| 12 | Katie Drabot | 1:58.58 | 1:57.9 | Ozaukee Aquatics |
Mallory Comerford of the University of Louisville could be a dark horse in this race. Though her best long course time is only a 2:00.31 swum in early March of this year, she placed 2nd at the NCAA Championships in mid-March, where she went a 1:42.54.
USA will break WR in 800m freestyle relay in RIO……may be Ledecky scares WR in individual event…
Article about Missy Franklin before trials on the USA swimming website
http://www.usaswimming.org/ViewNewsArticle.aspx?TabId=0&itemid=15714&mid=14491
I read some time predictions and that’s funny.
The goal is to swim fast in Rio.
If you are slower in Rio than at trials then you look very stupid.
KL has no reason to swim 1.53.50 at trials. She would easily win with a 1.54 low/1.54.50.
Missy will take the second place. But that idea of 100 back/200 free double is crazy.
“I read some time predictions and that’s funny.
The goal is to swim fast in Rio.
If you are slower in Rio than at trials then you look very stupid.”
I don’t know how and why you drew such conclusion because everyone in here predict Ledecky will swim even faster in Rio.
It’s just a general opinion. I find the times predicted for these trials by most of swim fans well too optimistic.
And once again I don’t want to see my favorite US swimmers peak too early.
Same about track and field.
About KL, if she swims 1.53.50 at trials then it means she will go 1.52 mid in Rio. 😆
I’d like to see that happen but it will not happen.
But KL is not the good example. She’s the only US swimmer who can arrive not rested at these trials while still qualifying easily in each of her events.
Overall we’ll see how many US swimmers will be able to swim faster in Rio.… Read more »
Bobo, why are so personally concerned about the times that Ledecky MAY or MAY NOT swum at the trials that are PREDICTED by some internet peanut gallery to the point you called them “funny”?
I thought you didn’t care for those?
Don’t wait for Omaha and Rio to make statistics about the success rate of US swimmers at the Olympics and their improvement rate from the trials. You have a whole history of the olympics, and can start with London.
And finished it in London.
Here, I’ll help you. Below are all the top swimmers who won individual medals in London and I indicated whether they were faster or slower in London compared to Omaha:
Cullen Jones FASTER
Nathan Adrian FASTER
Peter Vanderkaay FASTER
Matt Grevers SLOWER BY 0.08 SECONDS BUT STILL WON GOLD
Nick Thoman SLOWER BY 0.06 SECONDS BUT STILL WON SILVER
Tyler Clary FASTER
Ryan Lochte FASTER
Michael Phelps FASTER
Allison Schmitt FASTER
Katie Ledecky FASTER
Missy Franklin FASTER
Elizabeth Beisel FASTER
Rebecca Soni FASTER
Dana Vollmer FASTER
Caitlin Leverenz FASTER
It does seem all your worry were not substantiated, and happened mostly in your own mind.
Bobo, I know exactly how you feel in this stressful week before the trials. You are a worrywart just like me. You care about your favorite swimmers and worry too much about them. I’ve compiled my list of excuses for my favorite swimmers to mentally prepare myself in case they don’t deliver next week:
https://swimswam.com/nbc-sports-releases-u-s-olympic-trials-tv-broadcast-schedule/#comment-426714
Maybe reading them can also give you peace of mind the same way it has for me.
Hi Bobo,
Maybe you are still trying to process London result that I’ve just posed, so let me help you with Beijing. I’m listing all American FINALISTS in Beijing, and not just the medallists which is more appropriate in making comparisons with their trials times:
Ben Wildman-Tobriner FASTER… Read more »
Jason Lezak FASTER
Michael Phelps FASTER
Peter Vanderkaay FASTER
Larsen Jensen FASTER
Aaron Peirsol FASTER
Matt Grevers FASTER
Ryan Lochte FASTER
Aaron Peirsol SLOWER BY 0.01 SECONDS BUT STILL WON SILVER BEHIND LOCHTE
Brendan Hansen FASTER
Mark Gangloff FASTER
Scott Spann FASTER
Ian Crocker FASTER
Dara Torres FASTER
Kara Lynn Joyce FASTER
Natalie Coughlin FASTER
Yes, you’re right, but be nicer to Bobo!
Omaha:
1. Ledecky – 1:54.12 (partial taper)
2. Schmitt – 1:55.15
3. Franklin – 1:55.32
4. Smith – 1:56.23
5. Margalis – 1:56.75
6. Manuel – 1:56.78
Rio:
1. Sjostrom – 1:53.51
2. Ledecky – 1:53.65
3. Heemskerk – 1:54.43
4. McKeon – 1:54.47
5. Schmitt – 1:54.82
6. Pellegrini – 1:54.85
Relay:
Schmitt – 1:54.93
Franklin – 1:54.40
Smith – 1:55.65
Ledecky – 1:53.09
1. USA – 7:38.07 – New WR
2. AUS – 7:41.2 – NR
3. CHN – 7:44.65
4. SWE – 7:45.85
5. ITA – 7:47.1
6. UK – 7:48.05
7. CAN – 7:48.3
8. NED – 7:48.5
Victor, there’s some very interesting arithmetic evident in those relay calculations. Not going there with your US mark and CHN is certainly “ball-park, SWE looks a wee bit optimistic but how in the name of all that is holy did you come up with such a time for AUS ?
Finding an improvement of 10sec from last year …. 10sec ?? Lets use their 7.51.02 as a starting point. McKeon split 1.56.27 last year; fair to deduct 1.5sec from that … ok, make that 2sec. Barratt split 1.58.14 last year which is not uncommon for her in intl competition, but lets work on the assumption she leads off again and swims around her Trials mark … thats another 2sec… Read more »
In the case of AUS, you know Barratt’s a 1:55 swimmer and McKeown’s a 1:54. I’m thinking one of the Campbell sisters will join the effort and maybe add to that possibly a 2:05 200 butterflier (Groves). I reckon the slowest of the 4 is at least a 1:57 low. I think a 52.4 Campbell (if it’s Cate it’s going to be a 52.1) can probably swim a 1:55 high 200. So, using hypotheticals;
Barrat (1:55.7 – would only be a modest 0.1 s improvement on her PB and the recent swim at 1:56 shows she’s there)
Groves (1:56.7 – off a flying start, she might be faster)
Campbell (1:55.2 – pretty much a la Jenny Thompson who… Read more »
Am I the only one who thinks more than 6 swimmers will be used on the relay? Ledecky, Franklin, Schmitt, Smith will be the top 4, then Vreeland/Margalis/Neal/Manuel/Flickinger/McLaughlin for 2 slots and since she’s nearly a lock for the IMs, DiRado might only post a prelims time which will let her swim prelims relay.
It could look something like this:
Prelims: DiRado, 2 of the ruck of 1:56-1:57 swimmers, Smith/Schmitt
Finals: Ledecky, Franklin, Schmitt, Smith
It won’t be easy to beat Pellegrini’s record. It’s one of the hardest female record to beat.
I don’t see anybody doing it this summer
Very true. Ledecky may have the endurance to match the back half but does not have the speed (or the suit) to swim sub 1:53. I’d say maybe a flying start she could get down to 1:53.2 (55.3/57.9)
Really hope McLaughlin makes team especially after her performance in the relay at Kazan. I see Katie Ledecky and Allison Schmitt individually qualifying for Rio.
Olympic Trials-
1. Ledecky, Katie 1:53.56 American Record
2. Schmitt, Allison 1:54.44
3. Franklin, Missy 1:54.97
4. Smith, Leah 1:55.49
5. DiRado, Maya 1:56.67
6. Margalis, Melanie 1:56.89
7. McLaughlin, Katie 1:57.00
8. Vreeland, Shannon 1:57.31
Olympics:
1. Ledecky, Katie GOlD 1:53.49 American Record
2. Sjöstrom, Sarah SILVER 1:53.98 Swedish Record
3. Pellegrini, Federica BRONZE 1:54.01
4. Schmitt, Alison 1:54.26
(Schmitt wins Bronze if Sjöstrom does not swim this event).
Relay in London: They go 7:40.5 and break China’s world record.
The Relay consists of:
1. Missy Fraklin
2. Leah Smith
3. Allison Schmitt
4. Katie Ledecky
Relay will be much faster IMO
I thought about the splits more and this is what I’ve come up with. This is a little bit stretched but I definetly think they will be under 7:39.
Franklin 1:54.65
Smith 1:55.21
Schmitt 1:53.85
Ledecky 1:52.91
7:36.62 World Record
Manuel could also be a factor if she can go out and hang on i think she could be 4th or 5th.